Consensus methods Tropical cyclone forecast model

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top: wrf model simulation of hurricane rita tracks. bottom: spread of nhc multi-model ensemble forecast.


using consensus of forecast models reduces forecast error. trackwise, guna model consensus of interpolated versions of gfdl, ukmet quality control applied cyclone tracker, united states navy nogaps, , gfs models. version of guna corrected model biases known cgun. tcon consensus guna consensus plus hurricane wrf model. version of tcon corrected model biases known tccn. lagged average of last 2 runs of members within tcon plus ecmwf model known tvcn consensus. version of tvcn corrected model biases tvcc consensus.


in 2013, navgem replaced nogaps navy s primary operational global forecast model. 2013 season, , until model verification can occur, not being utilized in development of consensus forecasts.


for intensity, combination of lgem, interpolated gfdl, interpolated hwrf, , dships models known icon consensus. lagged average of last 2 runs of models within icon consensus called ivcn consensus. across northwest pacific , southern hemisphere, ten-member stips consensus formed output of nogaps,


gfs, japanese gsm, coupled ocean/atmosphere mesoscale prediction system (coamps), ukmet, japanese tym, gfdl nogaps boundary conditions, air force weather agency (afwa) model, australian tropical cyclone local area prediction system, , weber barotropic model.








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