Statistical guidance Tropical cyclone forecast model

r-cliper hurricane isabel (2003)

the first statistical guidance used national hurricane center hurricane analog technique (hurran), available in 1969. used newly developed north atlantic tropical cyclone database find storms similar tracks. shifted tracks through storm s current path, , used location, direction , speed of motion, , date find suitable analogs. method did storms south of 25th parallel had not yet turned northward, poorly systems near or after recurvature. since 1972, climatology , persistence (cliper) statistical model has been used generate tropical cyclone track forecasts. in era of skillful dynamical forecasts, cliper being used baseline show model , forecaster skill. statistical hurricane intensity forecast (shifor) has been used since 1979 tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. uses climatology , persistence predict future intensity, including current julian day, current cyclone intensity, cyclone s intensity 12 hours ago, storm s initial latitude , longitude, zonal (east-west) , meridional (north-south) components of motion.

a series of statistical-dynamical models, used regression equations based upon cliper output , latest output primitive equation models run @ national meteorological center, national centers environmental prediction, developed between 1970s , 1990s , named nhc73, nhc83, nhc90, nhc91, , nhc98. within field of tropical cyclone track forecasting, despite ever-improving dynamical model guidance occurred increased computational power, not until decade of 1980s when numerical weather prediction showed skill, , until 1990s when consistently outperformed statistical or simple dynamical models. in 1994, version of shifor created northwest pacific ocean typhoon forecasting, known statistical typhoon intensity forecast (stifor), used 1971–1990 data region develop intensity forecasts out 72 hours future.

in regards intensity forecasting, statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (ships) utilizes relationships between environmental conditions global forecast system (gfs) such vertical wind shear , sea surface temperatures, climatology, , persistence (storm behavior) via multiple regression techniques come intensity forecast systems in northern atlantic , northeastern pacific oceans. similar model developed northwest pacific ocean , southern hemisphere known statistical intensity prediction system (stips), accounts land interactions through input environmental conditions navy operational global prediction system (nogaps) model. version of ships inland decay component known decay ships (dships). logistic growth equation model (lgem) uses same input ships within simplified dynamical prediction system. within tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting, rainfall climatology , persistence (r-cliper) model developed using microwave rainfall data polar orbiting satellites on ocean , first-order rainfall measurements land, come realistic rainfall distribution tropical cyclones based on national hurricane center s track forecast. has been operational since 2004. statistical-parametric wind radii model has been developed use @ national hurricane center , joint typhoon warning center uses climatology , persistence predict wind structure out 5 days future.